Current PhD students:
ON THE THEME OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
Eric Mazzi (PhD expected 2009): “An integrated assessment of climate change policy, air quality and traffic safety for passenger cars in the UK.”
Climate policies applied to passenger cars can be effective in reducing CO2 by changing vehicle mass, fuels, and technology. However, these same factors can lead to changes in vehicle emissions, vehicle safety, and subsequently changes in health outcomes from air pollution and traffic collisions. These relationships are examined using the UK as a case study. Since the UK began taxing vehicles according to CO2 emission rates in 2001, there has been an exponential increase in consumer choice of diesels. For 2001-2020 we estimate that UK consumers switching from gasoline to diesel cars reduces CO2 by 0.4 megatons and 1 million barrels of oil annually. However, diesels emit higher levels of particulate matter estimated to result in 90 additional deaths annually (range 20-300). The relationship between tailpipe CO2 emission rates, vehicle mass, and traffic safety risks were also examined using UK data. In two-car collisions, the “first law” relative risk (risk ratio) of fatality for drivers of lighter cars rises relative to drivers of heavier cars exponentially to the power 5.3. Using UK-specific risk factors, we found that drivers’ conditional risk of serious injury or fatality were inversely related to their vehicle’s CO2 emission rate. Analyses of alternative scenarios for reducing mass show that incentives for lighter, lower CO2 emission rate cars should be more effective in achieving traffic safety and climate mitigation goals when combined with proscription of heavier, higher CO2 emission rate cars.
Sonja Klinsky (PhD expected 2010): Conceptions of justice in mitigation and adaptation to climate change
The goal of this research is to understand how people understand questions about fairness in climate change. Two groups of people are included in this research – residents of South Delta British Columbia, and policy makers and advisors. It is hoped that this research will help us design climate policies that are both politically viable and effective.
Brian Gouge (PhD expected 2011): Criteria pollutant emissions and micro-analysis of technology and operational choices in public transit.
Brian’s wants to apply a systems approach to analyzing the increasingly complex economic, social, and environmental tradeoffs associated with the operations and management of public transportation. Systems approaches have long been applied in the electric utility industry to optimize technology choice, capital investments, plant operations, environmental externalities and system reliability. However, these approaches have remained largely unexplored in public transportation. Although there have been significant developments in components of the transportation system, such as emission control technology, engine technology and intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies, all system elements and valued criteria have yet to be integrated into a single framework. A systems approach that incorporates these developments has the potential to fill an applied engineering knowledge gap and realize significant economic, environmental and social benefits.
Francis Ries (PhD expected 2011): Bridging the gap between emissions and exposures to criteria pollutants from public transit.
Exposure to pollution is a function of proximity to sources and pattern of inhalation. Standing at bus stops, the public is very close to the plume of emissions as buses take off. Putting bike lanes next to bus lanes exposes riders to deep inhalation of what the buses emit. Francis’ work is focused on the best strategies for meeting public transit needs while simultaneously reducing their exposure to pollutants.
I also serve on the committees of:
Zosia Bornik -- PhD: Performance of green buildings.
David Boyd -- PhD: Constitutional protection of the environment.
Christina Cook – PhD: Governance of subsurface water resources.
Reza Kowsari -- PhD: Climate change and rural energy from biomass.
Conor Reynolds -- PhD: Alternative approaches to air pollution control in India.
Paul Teehan -- PhD: Environmental impacts of the internet.
Recent MSc graduates:
Alex Russell (MSc, 2008): “Everything But the Moo: a stakeholder analysis of livestock waste tissue disposal options in British Columbia
Abstract:
The emergence of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or “mad cow” disease has forced new practices in raising of cattle, risk management in abattoirs and disposal of potentially infective material. To avert further BSE and potential vCJD cases, new policies are needed. These policies are are to protect the health of consumers in Canada. They are also a prerequisite to exporting Canadian meat products. A successful policy will need to balance economics, ease of implementation, and enforcement.
A range of technologies are available for disposal of potentially infected material. Very few of these are capable of destroying prions to negligible levels. Fewer still are of a scale that could be accessible to smaller abattoirs. Producers have been resisting the more costly options arguing higher costs would make their products undesirable. In this thesis the suitability of various technologies are assessed. Furthermore, surveys are used to estimate how much the public would be willing to pay for greater food safety. These show that the public are more than willing to pay for the added cost of highly effective management of risks such as BSE in BC.
Jana Hanova (MSc 2008): “Environmental and techno-economic analysis of ground-source heat systems”
Abstract:
In Canada, the realization of commitments to our GHG emission goals entails reducing residential energy use - a sector responsible for close to 20 percent of end-use energy consumption. This study focuses on the energy demand and emission levels of space and water heating, since these two components comprise 76% of residential energy demand.
Conventional heating technologies are often benchmarked against ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems, since these systems provide heating at 25 - 30% of the energy consumed by even the most efficient conventional alternatives. GSHPs have been identified as the most energy-efficient, environmentally clean, and cost-effective space conditioning systems available. However, their drawbacks have been high capital costs, and uncertainty about whether the electric power used by heat pumps has higher system-wide emissions. This thesis delineates conditions under which GSHP systems achieve the largest net emission reductions relative their natural gas, heating oil, and electric heat counterparts. Electricity generation methods and emissions embodied in inter-provincial and international electricity trade are shown to significantly affect the emission savings achievable through GSHP. The results quantify how relative fuel prices influence annual operating savings, which determine how rapidly the technology can achieve payback. This analysis reveals GSHPs to hold significant potential for substantial GHG reductions at a cost savings relative to conventional alternatives; the time horizons for payback are as short as nine years for average-sized homes, and significantly shorter for larger homes.
Zosia Bornik (MSc 2005): “Salmon farm location in the Broughton Archipelago British Columbia: a quantitative analysis”
Abstract:
The Broughton Archipelago on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island has the highest density of salmon aquaculture in the province of British Columbia, with 27 farms operating in an area of 117 km2. The Archipelago has been a focus region for early developments of spatial resource databases; it was the site selected for conducting the 1997 Salmon Aquaculture Review; and it has been the origin of recent controversies over the (mis)use of local ecological knowledge of First Nations and other interest groups. Many of the studies conducted in this area have focussed on the impacts of salmon farming on the local ecology. However, to date, little attention has been paid to what drives the industry at the regional level. By examining the distribution of salmon farms within the Archipelago and their spatial relationship to five different factors, this thesis aims to shed light on how and why the salmon aquaculture industry in the Broughton Archipelago has evolved in the manner that it has over the last 20 years.
This work examines the effectiveness of current siting guidelines in minimizing the impacts of salmon farming and protecting the long-term sustainability of B.C.’s coastal ecology. Geographic Information Systems and spatial data analysis are used in combination to test the validity of five hypotheses on the potential drivers of the location of salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago. Temporal analysis is used to compare the intended versus actual use of three spatial databases in shaping the development of the industry along the coast. Salmon farms in this region are found to be clustered by company, and located in areas of high biophysical capability where coastal resource interests and activities are also concentrated. These sites are not selected for their proximity to processing plants, hatchery facilities, or labour. Salmon farms, as currently distributed, are equally likely to be found in areas that meet the existing siting criteria as those that fail to do so. The findings of this research will be of fundamental importance as the province of B.C. faces the decision of whether to continue expanding the industry balancing risks with economic rewards, or to limit expansion until more is known about the costs and long-term impacts.
Adam Levine (MSc 2005 co-supervised with M. Kandlikar): “Disposal options to mitigate BSE risk in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia”
Abstract:
The border closure to Canadian cattle and beef exports since the discovery of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in May and December of 2003 have had overwhelming effects on the Canadian economy. Estimates suggest that nearly $6 billion in total has been lost in the 11/2 years since the border closure. Two additional cases have now been detected, both within two weeks of the announcement on December 29th, 2004 that trade with the U.S. (Canada’s largest trading partner for cattle and beef products) was to resume in March 2005. The second discovery was a beef cow born after the ruminant feed ban was put in place in 1997 and fears that the border would remain closed have been validated. To date, trade of live cattle to the U.S has not resumed. The biological wastes considered to have the highest probability of containing the BSE infectious agent known as the prion are termed specified risk materials (SRM). As such, SRMs have been prohibited from the human food chain in Canada since August of 2003 as a preventative measure against the human version of BSE known as variant Creutzfeldt Jakob Disease (vCJD). Like BSE, vCJD is attributed to the human consumption of BSE infected meat products. It is a fatal neurological disorder with no known vaccine or cure. Regulatory changes have been proposed to remove SRM from the entire animal feed chain as a measure to mitigate further incidences of BSE. Such a measure would result in large volumes of biological waste that have few acceptable disposal options creating substantial challenges for industry and government. There are few options that are scientifically proven to reduce TSE infectivity through the destruction or inactivation of the infectious agent known as the prion. Findings of this research conclude that there does exist energy recovery disposal options that can serve to reduce release of these materials to soil, groundwater, and wildlife . The inclusion of rendered meat and bone meal co-fired in cement kilns and biodiesel production from tallow stand out as promising options to be considered in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada.
Philippa Shepherd (MSc 2004): “Water management in the Okanagan”
Abstract:
Using climate change adaptation theory as a framework, this study explores the process of adaptation to multiple stressors in the context of water management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia. Water resources in the Okanagan are under growing stress from many pressures, including population growth, irrigated agriculture, tourism activities, forestry at higher elevations and now climate change. How to effectively adapt to these multiple stressors is a pertinent question for both local and provincial decision-makers. Four case studies, each representing different water efficiency approaches were selected for the study: domestic metering in Kelowna, irrigation metering in SEKID, wastewater reclamation in Vernon and institutional change in Greater Vernon, specifically amalgamation of separate water utilities.
The primary objective of the study is to explore how local authorities are adapting to current changing circumstances that impact availability of water resources: what factors triggered adaptation, determine the options selected and the success or failure of implementation, as well as what capacities facilitated adaptation i.e. adaptive capacity. Exploration of adaptation from a multi-signal perspective accentuates the contextual nature of future adaptation to climate change; that many factors i.e. other environmental pressures, socio-economic and political issues, will ultimately constrain, impede or encourage effective adaptation. Secondary objectives of the study include analyzing the effectiveness of the four management practices and exploring the role of learning in the adaptation process.
Twenty-eight interviews of local water managers, Council/Board members and other key informants were undertaken. These cases show that adaptation, even planned adaptation, is not a rational, clear-cut process. Five key elements are critical for the initiation and follow through of appropriate and effective adaptation: 1) Capacity; 2) Willingness; 3) Understanding; 4) Trust, and 5) Learning. Resources need to be available/accessible in order for adaptation to occur. Willingness, or human agency, is vital in making appropriate decisions. Understanding the context will aid selection of appropriate options, aid procedural ease and outcome effectiveness. Trust, although won’t necessarily prevent conflict will ease the decision-making process. Finally, making learning an explicit objective will challenge internal status quo and ensure continual system improvements as well as the diffusion of experience between organizations.
Recent PhD graduates:
Hisham Zerriffi (PhD, 2004 co-supervised with A. Farrell): “Electric power systems under stress: an evaluation of centralised vs. distributed system architectures.”
Abstract:
The issue of electric power systems under persistent and high stress conditions and possible changes to electric power systems to deal with this issue is the subject of this dissertation. The stresses considered here are not the single event type of disruptions that occur as a result of a hurricane or other extreme weather event or the large blackouts that result from a particular set of circumstances. Instead the focus is on conditions that cause systematic and long-term performance degradation of the system such as underinvestment in infrastructure, poor maintenance, and military conflict.
While it has long been recognized that persistent stresses such as conflict and war can have a large impact on electric power systems, there has been few systematic analyses of the problem. The first goal of this research was to model and quantify the reliability and economic differences between centralized and distributed energy systems for providing electricity and heat, particularly under stress conditions. This goal was met through the development of Monte Carlo reliability simulations, applied to different system network topologies. The results of those models show significant potential improvements in energy delivery with distributed systems.
The second goal was to determine the impact of heterogeneity of local loads on the desired level of decentralization of the system and the impact of decentralization on the network requirements. This goal was met through a combination of Monte Carlo simulations applied to systems with differentiated and non-coincident loads and an optimal power flow applied to a more realistic network topology. The results of those models show the potential for improvements when loads are non-coincident and micro-grids can share power as well as the fact that the power sharing may be largely limited to local clusters of micro-grids. This research also showed the need for incorporation of stress in power systems modeling and a method for characterizing stress.
Charlie Wilson (PhD, 2008 co-supervised with T. McDaniels): “Understanding and influencing energy efficient renovation decisions”
Abstract:
Each social science discipline offers competing and often conflicting models of human behaviour. Differences persist because disciplinary models are founded on selective assumptions and bespoke empirical data. This thesis tests the applicability of various behavioural models against a single comprehensive data set in a focal area of environmental policy: residential energy use. In so doing, some tensions and misconceptions in the behavioural bases for energy policy are teased out. More robust approaches to the promotion of individual behaviour change are elucidated.
The first part of the thesis is an extensive review of the behavioural literature. The focus is on decision making as a precursor of behaviour that is intentional and cognitively mediated. The review considers microeconomic models of utility maximisation within a broader notion of economic rationality, and behavioural economic findings on heuristics, or simple non-optimising decision rules, that are often associated with systematic biases in decision making. The review continues by looking at other instrumental or outcome-oriented decision models from behavioural psychology and technology diffusion studies in which attitudes and perceptions play a greater role. Behavioural models from social psychology instead emphasize the constraints placed on psychological factors by a decision’s context. Contextual constraints are developed further by sociological models in which individual agency is attenuated by social and technical systems, and the normative behaviour that these imply.
The second part of the thesis picks apart an empirical dataset combining both stated and revealed preference data. 809 homeowners were surveyed on a wide range of factors relating to home renovations. The sample was intentionally biased to over-represent both energy efficient renovators, and homeowners at different stages of a renovation decision. The survey data was combined with electricity and gas consumption data from the respective utilities, and data from a supplementary survey of realtors focusing on the influence of renovations on property value.
There are various headline findings. Firstly, decisions are a process not an input-output algorithm as represented in so many disciplinary models. Influences and motivations all change over a decision process. Threshold effects are also evidenced. This suggests ways for effectively targeting financial incentives which are a key lever of residential energy policy. Secondly, emotional and aesthetic factors play a driving role in renovation decisions which are then justified as instrumental after the fact using financial or environmental rationales. This emphasizes how single cross-section research (either pre- or post-decision) will substantiate different understandings of decision making. Thirdly, renovation decisions can be distinguished by their scope. Energy efficient renovations to a home’s building envelope or energy systems are in many ways distinct from renovations to a home’s amenities and living spaces. Yet the key to promoting energy efficiency may lie in the harnessing of social norms on amenity renovations. Effective energy policy needs to look beyond the energy services supply chain. Fourthly, homeowners’ expectations for a return on their renovation investments undermine the assumption of financial rationality that pervades information-based policies. Moreover, homeowners’ own knowledge of their energy costs is characterised by pervasive uncertainty and systematic over-estimation. This can, in turn, be explained by salience, availability and anchoring biases.
Raul Pacheco (PhD, 2008): “An integrated assessment of the effects of environmental regulation, land use changes and market forces on the Mexican leather and footwear industries’ restructuring.”
Abstract:
Traditional theories of industrial restructuring assign the most explanatory weight of the structural change phenomenon to increasing pressures via globalization and falling trade barriers. This thesis offers a new model of thinking about industrial restructuring that includes multiple stressors. The thesis focuses on three main drivers of structural change: market pressures, environmental regulation and changes in land use and land pricing, using two case studies of leather and footwear industrial clusters in Mexico, located in the cities of León and Guadalajara. Evidence of multiple drivers of structural change is found in the dissertation. Furthermore, responses to restructuring drivers in León and Guadalajara are found to be substantially different. Firms in the leather and footwear cluster in León have implemented countervailing strategies such as price competition, government lobbying, and more recently, investment in socio-economic research (competitiveness) projects. However, firms in the leather and footwear cluster in Guadalajara focused on a specific, high-end target market. At the larger, urban scale, footwear and its allied industries in the city of León resisted change and have tried to remain in operation while the city of Guadalajara has focused on a diversification strategy, attracting new (arguably more technically advanced) industries. This thesis offers empirical and theoretical advances. Empirically, it applies a firm demographics approach to the study of industrial clusters under multiple stressors. This approach has not been previously used on Mexican data. Theoretically, it demonstrates that future analyses of industrial complexes’ structural change can be strengthened through the use of an integrated assessment framework investigating the effect of multiple stressors (market forces, land pricing, technical change, environmental regulations, and consumer preferences) on industrial restructuring.
Negar Elmieh (PhD 2009):“An integrated assessment of public health responses to the spread of the West Nile Virus. “
Abstract:
Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases provide a challenge to public health in that the frequency, location, duration, and sequelae of the disease and outbreak are not always readily identifiable. In the absence of such information, the need to understand what drives risk perceptions, risk trade-offs, and heterogeneity in population behaviors becomes important in designing effective and appropriate risk communications, public health messages, and interventions. In this thesis, four studies are described that examine risk perceptions, risk trade-offs, and behavioral uncertainties as they relate to West Nile virus (WNV) prevention and control strategies. In Chapter 2, the health belief model was used to examine the influence of health beliefs and demographics on health behaviors recommended to reduce the risk of WNV. Results showed that health beliefs and subsequent behaviors varied based on the perceived risk and disease context. Respondents were more likely to engage in recommended health behaviors if they received timely information, understood the benefits of a particular behavior, and lived in areas exposed to WNV. In Chapter 3, risk trade-offs of WNV interventions were examined between laypeople and health experts using multi-criteria decision analyses. Laypeople perceived some WNV interventions to be more effective than health experts reported them to be. Health experts were most concerned about the effectiveness of such interventions. This showed that laypeople were more willing to make risk trade-offs given the scenario. In Chapter 4, probabilistic modeling techniques were used to characterize variability and uncertainty in population, environmental, pesticide, and exposure characteristics. By modeling a realistic mosquito abatement campaign, we found that children under 6 are potentially at risk of exposure to malathion levels that exceed standards set by Canadian and US regulatory agencies. Chapter 5 explored behavioral and demographic risk factors associated with risk perceptions of WNV and WNV interventions. Unique associations were found which merit further study to understand the extent of their relationships. Together, these studies highlight the importance of targeted programs and risk communications to specific sub-populations bridging knowledge gaps. Though the findings are specific to WNV, their implications are far-reaching and useful in preparing for other emerging and re-emerging diseases.
Shannon Hagerman (PhD 2009, co-supervised with T. Satterfield): “Adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change: an integrated examination of ecological and social dimensions of change”<
Abstract:
Recognition of the impacts of climate change has prompted re-assessment of existing conservation policy frameworks (here thought of as collections of means and objectives that reflect values, beliefs and expectations of control). The concern is that changing temperature and precipitation regimes will alter an extensive range of biological processes and patterns. These system dynamics are at odds with long-established conservation policies that are predicated on assumptions of stable biodiversity targets (e.g. species or ecosystems), and that seek to protect these targets by means of static protected areas. Efforts to address this challenge have so far originated from the fields of ecology and biogeography and include the core adaptive strategies of expanding protected areas and implementing migration corridors. The purpose of this research was to reach beyond these disciplines to integrate across a set of ecological and social insights to develop a more holistic understanding of challenge of adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change. Two overarching questions guided this research: 1) do the impacts of climate change necessitate a different set of means, objectives and expectations than are indicated by current conservation adaptation proposals (i.e. proposals that include new protected areas and migration corridors as the primary adaptive strategy); and 2) if there is evidence that this is so, what are the barriers to implementing a policy framework with new means, objectives and expectations?
Using a combination of case study, expert elicitation, and ethnographic methods, the results of this thesis provide empirical evidence that the impacts of climate change are seen by many experts to implicate the need for changes in conservation policy that include consideration of interventions such facilitating species distributions through disturbance, assisted migration, revised objectives, and triage-like priority setting. Yet simultaneously there is evidence of a publicly precautionary ambivalence towards these alternative elements of a potentially new policy framework, combined with durable more preservationist (less engineering) conservation values. It is contended that these value-based commitments have in part, shaped the adaptive response so far. Combined, these results highlight that policy adaptation within “science-based” conservation is a tangle of social dynamics, including durable preservationist-type values and related resistance to anticipated difficult tradeoffs implicit in a more transformative decision framework.
Great projects not leading to a degree:
Michelle Boyle (2002-2009): “Adapting to climate change in the arctic region.”
Anticipatory adaptation to climate change involves understanding future risks and planning now to develop in ways that reduce the impacts from projected climate change. Michelle's work has shown that Arctic communities are in need of many factors to help their future development, not the least of which is the capacity to plan and implement strategic development plans. Climate change, while expected to be most pronounced in polar regions, is only one of many different challenges these communities face and being able to address all of these challenges through strategic planning is critical to their healthy and sustainable development. |
